출처: The Economist
과거 일본의 2분기 경제성장률을 보고...라는 글에서도 밝혔지만 솔직히 말해서 현재 일본을 어떻게 판단해야 하는지 잘모르겠다.
더해서 일본은 14년과 15년에 소비세를 올릴 계획으로 보여지는데 Oxford Economics에서 관련 글을 몇 주전에 올렸다. 그 내용 중 결과만 아래에 발췌한다.
We ran two scenarios, one mimicking the estimated effect of the tax hike by reducing real household income by 2%, and the other based on a ¥70 billion upward ‘shock’ to QE (the shocks are assumed to hit in Q3 2013).
We find that these two shocks would largely offset each other. The household income shock would reduce Japanese GDP by 1.3% compared to baseline after two years, while the QE shock would raise GDP by 1.5% over the same period. This suggests that, as it stands, the overall fiscal and monetary policy mix planned for 2014 is broadly neutral. (Oxford Economics)
