South Korea officially maintains a market determined exchange rate, and its authorities intervene with the stated objective of smoothing won volatility. In February 2013, Korea joined the rest of the G-20 in committing to refrain from competitive devaluation and to not target its exchange rate for competitive purposes.
The Korean authorities have intervened on both sides of the market, but the sustained rise in their reserves and net forward position* indicates that they have intervened on net to resist won appreciation. Unlike many other major emerging markets and industrialized economies, Korea does not publicly report foreign exchange market intervention. However, market participants derive estimated intervention from Korea’s balance of payments data and changes in Korea’s published foreign exchange reserves and forward positions.
* net forward position: all amounts to be received less all amounts to be paid under forward exchange transactions, including currency futures and the principal on currency swaps not included in the spot position
** net spot position: all assets less all liabilities, including accrued interest, in the currency in question
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/exchange-rate-policies/Documents/Report%20to%20Congress%20on%20International%20Economic%20and%20Exchange%20Rate%20Policies%2004092015.pdf
미재무부가 작성한 우리나라 외환정책에 관한 글을 보면 Balance of Payment(국제수지)와 foreign exchange reserves(외환보유고)와 forward positions(=foreign exchange forward position, 선물환보유고)의 변화를 통해 우리 당국의 외환시장 개입을 유추할 수 있다고 한다.
그런데 이 선물환보유고가 외환보유고에 포함되지 않는다.
즉 외환보유고와 국제수지의 집계방식 차이로 인한 오차만으로 당국의 외환시장 개입을 해석하기는 어렵다는 말이다. 그리고 문제는 이 선물환보유고를 어디서 확인할 수 있는지 아직 알지 못한다는 것이다.
어째든 지금 우리정부는 환율방어를 열심히 하고 있다고 보여진다. 이는 미국 재무부에서도 IMF에서도 언급하고 있는 문제이다.
궁금한건 얼마나 어떻게 개입하고 있느냐인데..
아직 알지 못하는 관계로 일단은 이렇게 넘어가야겠다.. ㅋ
